Sunday, July 23, 2017

Instincts

Baseball scouts scour diamonds all over the country hoping to find the pot of gold otherwise known as the "five tool player."  They are as rare as goldilocks planets sought by NASA's astronomers.  In fact, out of the twelve hundred men currently on Major League Baseball rosters, you could make an argument that there are only two such players, center fielder Mike Trout of the California Angels Of Anaheim and right fielder Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.  Their current contracts are indicative of the rareness of their combined individual talents.  Trout, at age 25 considered to be the best player in baseball, is in the third year of a six year contract that's worth $144,500,000.  Harper, age 24, is in the first year of a two year $35,250,000 deal.

So, what are the five tools?  They are the ability to hit for average, the ability to hit with power, fielding, arm strength and speed.  That final tool is probably the most misunderstood, because its valuation requires more than simply using a stopwatch to check how fast a runner can get from first to home on an RBI double.  (In a recent game, the Twins' Byron Buxton did it in a jaw-dropping 9.4 seconds.  Unfortunately Byron, at this stage of his nascent career, is only a two tool athlete.)  A player with speed is still limited on the base paths if he does not have great instincts and awareness, which go hand-in-hand.

Last Sunday's game between the Twins and the Houston Astros presented a classic example of excellent speed combined with acute instincts and awareness.  It was the rubber game of the three game series in Minute Maid Park.  A Twins victory would not only be a series win for the underdogs; it would amount to a season highlight and a potential launching point for an unexpected run at the playoffs.

The 'Stros were hanging on to a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the seventh inning.  Their # 9 hitter, Jake Marisnick, was up first.  Ordinarily having a team's nine-hole hitter lead off an inning bodes well for the opponent, but Marisnick is not your ordinary nine-hole batter.  His very good .826 OPS is evidence of just how strong Houston's lineup is from top to bottom.  Marisnick makes Twins starter Kyle Gibson throw eleven pitches during the at-bat, eventually drawing a walk.  Gibson looks exhausted, having thrown 107 pitches, when manager Paul Molitor comes out with the hook and brings in rookie reliever Trevor Hildenberger, making only the seventh appearance of his big league career.

Next up for Houston is their leadoff man, designated hitter George Springer.  Key Moment # 1:  On the second pitch to Springer, Marisnick easily steals second base, not even drawing a throw from Twins catcher Chris Gimenez.  Marisnick was able to get a huge lead because Hildenberger, a righty, did not pay much attention to Marisnick on the first pitch to Springer.  Thus Marisnick correctly predicted that he wouldn't draw much attention on the second either.  Instincts!  Granted, Hildenberger is a rookie, but he should have known that Marisnick is a center fielder, a great athlete with ample speed.

On a 2-1 pitch Springer bounces a high chopper to Twins third baseman Eduardo Escobar.  Escobar is not the Twins' regular third baseman -- Miguel Sano is -- but Escobar is a veteran who has played many innings at the hot corner.  By the time the ball descends into Esco's glove, Marisnick is a good thirty feet off second base, leaving Esco with a tough decision to make.  Does he fake a throw toward second to entice Marisnick to retreat, or does he make a quick toss to first to throw out the fleet footed (as most leadoff hitters are) Springer?  Escobar opts for Door # 2, not a bad choice since the cardinal baseball rule here is "Get one out for sure."  If Springer was a slower runner, Esco would have had time to look Marisnick back to second before making the throw.  But he doesn't.  Escobar immediately throws to first, lucky to get Springer by a step.

Key Moment # 2: However, Marisnick, who was still only sixty feet from third when Esco started to make the cross-field throw, knows he can get to third before Kennys Vargas, not the Twins' regular first baseman -- Joe Mauer is -- can make an accurate throw back across the diamond in time for Esco to tag out Marisnick.  Instincts!  Marisnick dashes safely to third.

What happens next would have embarrassed even the Bad News Bears.  Key Moment # 3: Vargas, who has no chance whatsoever to get Marisnick out at third, makes the ill-advised throw anyway.  As is typical with those Hail Mary tosses, Vargas' throw is so off target that it eludes not only Escobar, who is standing on third base waiting for the throw, but also shortstop Ehire Adrianza, who is fifteen feet up the left field line, ostensibly to back up the play. Marisnick trots home with the insurance run.  4-2, Houston.

But wait! The fun has just begun!

The third batter of the inning is Astros second sacker, Jose Altuve, currently hitting .345.  He is an All-Star starter whose career batting average of .315 is second among all active MLB players.  (In first place is Miguel "Miggy" Cabrera, the Detroit Tigers' first baseman, with a .319 career average.)  Listed at 5'6" and built like a fire hydrant, Altuve is another Astro who can fly.  Altuve's at-bat closely mirrors Springers', as he hits a chopper which barely stays in fair territory, hopping over the third base bag.  The fair ball is touched by a dim-witted fan, so Altuve is awarded a ground rule double, his twenty-seventh double of the year.  At this point the poor rookie pitcher, Hildenberger, has induced two weakly hit infield grounders, but a run has scored, there is only one out, and the Astros have a runner in scoring position.  Molitor comes out with the hook once again.  In comes yet another reliever, Buddy Boshers, a mediocre pitcher with an opponents' batting average of .264.

Next up for the 'Strohs is their # 3 hitter, veteran right fielder Josh Reddick.  With a .310 batting average, Reddick is dangerous (as are most 3-hole hitters), but he is 0 for 3 in this game.  "He is due," as they say.  Key Moment # 4: Boshers never bothers to check the runner on an 0-1 pitch, so the wily Altuve steals third; this, even though Reddick is a left-handed batter leaving a clear throwing lane for the catcher.  Instincts!  "Altuve is a pest," quips TV analyst Bert Blyleven.

Surprisingly, Boshers gets Reddick to whiff on a 2-2 slider in the dirt for strike three.  But since first base is open (i.e., no runner there) and there are less than two outs, Reddick takes off for first.  Catcher Gimenez briefly glances at Altuve, who looks like he's staying put a few feet off third, then fires a throw to Vargas at first to complete the strikeout of Reddick. Key Moment # 5:  As soon as Gimenez gets off his throw, the heady Altuve correctly senses that the burly 290 pound Vargas will not be able to get a throw back to Gimenez at the plate in time to tag out Altuve.  Instincts!  With blazing speed, Altuve dashes home, sliding around Gimenez' discarded mask, and safely touches home plate.  Another insurance run for Houston; 5-2 Astros.

Nineteen minutes after the disastrous half-inning began, it mercifully ends when cleanup hitter Brian McCann strikes out.  The Twins save a little face by scoring a single run in the top of the ninth, but the damage has been done.  Astros win, 5-3.  Losing the series to the clearly superior team, the Twins once again have taken one step forward but two steps back.

To summarize the bottom of the seventh, the Astros sent only five men to the plate, and two of them struck out.  Only two batters put the ball in play, and those were weakly hit infield choppers.  Given those facts, how did they manage to score the two runs that, for all intents and purposes, put the game away?  Speed, the Fifth Tool, accompanied by instincts and awareness.  There's that word again: Instincts!  It is no surprise the Astros, with a current record thirty-two games above .500, are the best team in the American League.  They are a very fun group to watch, and will be a tough out in the playoffs.

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