Conflicts Of Interest Mar College Football

Imagine your job puts you in a position where you have a lot of discretion regarding the decisions you make.  One day you are faced with a tough decision requiring an instantaneous verdict.  If you rule one way, your employer will make approximately $18 million with a good chance at $40 million.  If you rule the opposite way, instead of $40 million, the revenue will be approximately $5 million, at best, and more likely around $2 million.  Oh, yeah, there's one other component of this scenario: There are millions of people watching in real time as you perform your duty.  Do you think you would be up to the task?

That is precisely what awaits the officials for the four major conference title games this weekend.  You might recall the brilliant explanation of the new college football playoffs contained in my August 28 post (Musical Chairs, Football Style).  In that post I explained how a "select" committee of thirteen people was going to chose the four teams to play in a playoff format for the national championship.  (One panelist, Archie Manning, had to resign for health reasons, so the committee ended up being comprised of twelve members.) The committee's decision will be announced this Sunday.  In the meantime, starting tonight, four of the five so-called Power 5 conferences (i.e., all but the Big 12 Conference, which does not have a title game) will hold their championship games on neutral fields.  Let's take a quick look at what's at stake.

SEC Conference.  This game, to be played in Atlanta, pits SEC West Division champ Alabama against SEC East Division champ Missouri.  (Yes, you read that correctly; Missouri is in the east!).  Alabama is currently ranked # 1 according to the committee's latest poll, which was released three days ago.  If 'Bama wins, they are a shoo-in to be chosen for the four-team playoff.  If the Crimson Tide gets upset by Mizzou, there is an excellent chance that the SEC will not have any team in the playoffs, especially if the favorites in this weekend's other big games win as predicted.   Currently, Missouri is ranked relatively low at # 16.  The second highest SEC school is Mississippi State at # 10.  Mizzou and Mississippi State are too far back to jump other teams to reach the top four. The result of having no SEC team in the playoffs would be flabbergasting, because the SEC is universally considered the best conference in the world of college football.  In fact, about five weeks ago, three of the committee's top four teams were SEC schools.  If Alabama loses tomorrow, the best hope for the SEC is that the committee only drops them down to # 4, an unlikely result since, at that point, 'Bama would be a two-loss team.

PAC 12 Conference.  This game features PAC 12 North champ Oregon versus PAC 12 South champ Arizona.  The site is Santa Clara, California.  The analysis here is pretty close to that for the SEC.  If Oregon wins, it's a lock for the playoffs.  At its current # 2 ranking, it is a heavy favorite.  A Wildcat win probably leaves the PAC 12 without a playoff team.  My guess is that Arizona at #7 is likely too far back to jump other teams up to the top four, and Oregon would be a two-loss team.

ACC.  The Atlantic Coast Conference championship will be played tomorrow in Charlotte.  Florida State, the Atlantic Division champ, is the sole undefeated major college team, but they are only ranked # 4.  They allegedly run a dirty program, and my guess is that the committee will drop them like a rock if they lose to Georgia Tech, the Coastal Division champ.  Georgia Tech, at # 11, has virtually no shot at making the playoffs, even with a win over the 'Noles.

Big 10:  This is the only one of the four major conference championship games which does not have a team currently in the top four.  However, Ohio State is poised at # 5 to claim a playoff spot if at least one of the four teams above it (Alabama, Oregon, Texas Christian or Florida State) loses. The Buckeyes' opponent is Wisconsin, currently ranked # 13.  Just like Missouri and Georgia Tech -- and possibly Arizona -- a conference championship does not guarantee a playoff berth for the Badgers.  They are too far back and already have two losses.  Ironically, Wisconsin is a slight favorite to beat Ohio State, because State's two best quarterbacks have injuries which will deprive them of playing.

Now, back to my point.  The payout per team for the two playoff semi-finals (this season, the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl) is $18 million.  The payout per team for the college football championship game, to be played in Arlington on January 12, is a cool $22 million.  According to my North Dakota high school math, therefore, each of the two teams making it to Arlington will be paid a total of $40 million, the lion's share of which goes to those schools' respective conferences to be split among all its member schools.  The highest payout for any bowl outside of the four-team playoff is the Citrus Bowl on New Year's Day, with a  payout per team of $4.25 million.

In summary, for the first three championship games described above, if the favorites (Alabama, Oregon and Florida State) win, their respective conferences are practically assured of benefiting to the tune of at least $18 million, and possibly $40 million.  If any of the underdogs (Missouri, Arizona and Georgia Tech) win, their conferences can probably kiss the mega bucks goodbye, because those winners will not make the playoffs.  Regarding the Big 10 title game, that conference's only realistic hope for the two huge paydays is for Ohio State to win.

In college football, referees are employed by a conference, and each conference obviously uses one of its own crews for their title games.  Contrast this with professional sports, which employ their game officials on a national basis, without consideration to a particular league or conference.  For example, Major League Baseball might use a certain umpiring crew for a National League series, and then send that crew to another city to work an American League series.

So, put yourself in this situation.  You are a back judge on the SEC crew which is assigned to work the SEC title game tomorrow night.  Your main job is to decide, in a split second, whether there is pass interference on any passing play.  Alabama has the ball, 4th down on the Mizzou 35 yard line.  Missouri is winning, 24 to 20, and there are only three seconds left in the game; time for only one more play.  The ball is snapped, the Alabama receiver and the Missouri cornerback are hand-checking each other all the way downfield as the quarterback lofts the ball toward the end zone. Theoretically, each player is entitled to go for the ball, but whether the Missouri DB is being too aggressive is up to you.  Do you, as the back judge, think about who signs your paycheck?  Do you think about the fact that an Alabama loss means no $40 million pot of gold for the SEC?  Is this not a conflict of interest?  Even if you decide to throw the flag in good faith, is there not the appearance of a conflict of interest?

It is time for major college football to end the conference alliance of game officials.  There should be one national referees association, just like there is for professional sports.