Manufacturing Runs

The Twins have been playing now for three weeks, and to the surprise of many, they have a winning record (8-7) and are only a game out of first place. Before they surrender that lofty position, I think I'd better write a little something about my favorite -- and the best-- sport, baseball.

You have probably heard that the Houston Astros have switched from the National League Central (which used to have six teams) to the American League West (which used to have only four teams). As a result, Major League Baseball has six five-team divisions, and each league (AL and NL) has an odd number of teams, fifteen to be exact. One of the obvious upshots of having an odd number of teams in each league is that, on any given day, there is likely to be at least one interleague game. For example, tomorrow the Twins (American League) will host the Florida Marlins (National League). Before the Astros made the switcheroo, interleague games were only played during a couple of one-week periods in the middle of the season.

When teams play in National League parks, National League rules apply. Likewise for games in American League parks. There used to be more differences in the old days between the rules of each league (e.g., where the home plate umpire stood and even how he wore his chest protector) than there are today, but the biggest distinction remains the use of the designated hitter, which is not allowed in National League stadia. When a game is played under National League rules, the pitcher is scheduled to bat every ninth time through the lineup, just like the shortstop or the right fielder. Pitchers are notoriously abysmal hitters, many of them not even bothering to take the bat off their shoulders. This impacts strategy for the manager in several important ways, resulting in at least two distinct approaches for offense. One is to rely mostly on power hitters in the lineup smashing line drives and extra base hits to create big innings. The other approach is alternatively referred to as "small ball" or "manufacturing runs." The former strategy is more likely to be found in the American League, where a manager can use a designated hitter to create more offense. The latter strategy is more prevalent in the National League, where pitchers are usually an automatic out and are therefore often called upon to attempt to bunt runners to the next base. I say "attempt" to bunt, because most pitchers are so poor at hitting that successfully laying down a bunt is certainly not a given.

The American League strategy of relying on the long ball is rather self-explanatory. Let's say the leadoff batter of the inning reaches first base. In the AL style of play, none of the subsequent hitters would be asked to lay down a sacrifice bunt. Outs are deemed precious commodities, and there's no sense giving up one of your three allotted outs that inning merely for the sake of putting a runner at second with one out. Instead, think big, that is, hope that one of your next three hitters (following the leadoff hitter who is on first) will deliver an extra base hit. Better yet, maybe one of those three guys will get lucky and knock one over the wall. In the AL, managers like to talk about "putting up a crooked number," i.e., anything other than a "0" or a "1." Earl Weaver, who passed away earlier this year, was famous for this line of thinking. He managed the Baltimore Orioles for seventeen seasons, starting in 1968. "Pitching, defense and the three-run homer" was the catch phrase always associated with Weaver. Of course, when you have sluggers like Boog Powell and Frank Robinson in your lineup, you are predisposed to use that strategy. The same goes for Harvey's Wallbangers, the power packed Milwaukee Brewers team of 1982 managed by Harvey Kuehn. The middle of their batting order featured Stormin' Gorman Thomas, Ben Oglivie and Cecil Cooper, all of whom hit more than thirty home runs that year, leading the Brew Crew to the World Series.

What about the small ball approach favored more by National League teams? How do you "manufacture" runs? The three major components used in manufacturing runs are bunting, base stealing and the hit-and-run. I am going to leave bunting for another day, as there are at least four kinds of bunts to consider. The rest of today's dissertation will be on the other two components.

The Hit-And Run (H&R): This play occurs when a runner on first takes off for second, and the batter attempts to hit the ball through the hole vacated by the shortstop or the second baseman to take the throw from the catcher. Some smarty pants baseball announcers like to say that a hit-and-run is not the same as a run-and-hit. To that I say "Poppycock," although admittedly it would be more accurate to call the play a run-and-hit. But it's nearly impossible to buck tradition, so "hit-and-run" it is. There are two reasons to use the H&R. One is to give the baserunner a better chance of reaching third base on a single, rather than pulling up at second. By the time the outfielder fetches the ball, the base runner should have already rounded second. The other reason is to stay out of a double play. Even if the batter makes contact but hits the ball to an infielder (instead of getting a hit to the outfield), the throw will probably go to first because the base runner will already be too close to second by the time the infielder is able to make the throw.

There are certain ingredients which make a H&R a wise choice. First, the batter should be at least an above average contact hitter. You don't want to attempt a H&R if the guy who's up strikes out an average of once (or more) a game. If the batter whiffs on the pitch, the base runner is likely to get thrown out at second because if the baserunner were a speed merchant, the manager would have been more likely to call for a straight steal than a H&R. Secondly, the chances for a successful H&R are better if the batter is more of a spray hitter than a pull hitter. Why? Because the middle infielder assigned to cover second when the base runner leaves first base is usually the opposite side fielder, i.e., the second baseman if the batter is right handed, or the shortstop if the batter is a leftie. Remember, the batter is trying to punch the ball to the spot where the infielder was standing before he left to cover second base. A pull hitter will be unlikely to execute such a placement. Third, you want to try the H&R when you are predicting that the pitch will be a fast ball. Remember, making contact is a necessity, and fast balls (especially four seamers) are easier for most major league batters to hit than breaking balls. Scouting reports on each pitcher will tell a manager which pitch a pitcher likes to throw in certain situations, but a general rule is this: When a pitcher is behind in a count (say 2 & 0 or 3 & 1), he is most likely to bring the heater because it is easier to locate than a breaking ball.

The Straight Steal: A straight steal starts out like a H&R, but unlike the H&R, the batter is not necessarily attempting to hit the ball (although the batter still might swing for the purpose of making it more difficult for the catcher to execute the catch-and-throw). The objective of a straight steal is to get the runner into scoring position without sacrificing an out or relying on the batter to make contact with the pitch. One could write a mid-size book on base stealing, but in the interest of time and space I will come up well short of that.

Every team has at least one speed burner who is adept at stealing second. One does not always follow the other, however; just because a guy is fast does not make him a good base stealer. The best base stealers are usually "green lighted" by the manager, which means they are free to attempt a steal without having to wait for a signal from the third base coach.  If the pitcher brings his "kick foot" (i.e., his front foot) behind his back leg, he is forced by the rules to deliver the pitch to the plate.  He is not permitted to make a pick off attempt to first.  If he does, it's a balk.  Therefore, as soon as a green lighted runner sees that front foot go behind the pitcher's back leg, he is off and running.

Here are some things about base stealing to look for the next time you're watching a game. First, how big a lead off of first does the runner take? A daring base runner takes a big enough lead so that, if the pitcher throws over there, he has to dive back to the sack. On those diamonds with sliding pits, a good lead would be having the runner's right foot on the dirt and the left foot at least very close to the dirt.

Second, keep these two numbers in mind: 1.3 and 33. Managers frequently use a stop watch in the dugout to time how long it takes from the time the pitcher comes out of the set position in the stretch until the ball hits the catcher's mitt. If it is more than 1.3 seconds, the pitcher is vulnerable to base stealing, even if the catcher has a cannon for an arm. The two most important variables here are the speed of the pitch and the height of the pitcher's leg kick. Pitchers will often take a drag step instead of their regular kick in order to keep within that 1.3 second window. Speaking of the catcher, the number "33" refers to the percentage of attempted base stealers the catcher throws out. Yes, it's true that most stolen bases are the result of a flaw by the pitcher, but if the catcher fails to throw out at least 33% of the runners who are stealing, the situation is ripe for a SB. Each catcher's success ratio is part of the scouting report.

Third, pay attention to the count. Unlike a H&R situation as I described above, where the most desirable time is when the pitcher is likely to throw a fast ball, a base stealing attempt is more likely to occur if the pitcher is probably going to throw an off speed pitch. If the pitcher is ahead in the count (e.g., 0 & 1 or 1 & 2), anticipating a breaking ball is a smart educated guess. An off speed pitch takes slightly longer to get to the plate, plus it's tougher for the catcher to handle, especially in the case of a splitter.

Even when all the pieces are in place for a base stealing attempt (right handed pitcher with a slow delivery, pitcher ahead in the count, catcher with a poor arm, fast runner on first), let me suggest four times when a manager still might not want to have his runner steal. First, one of the unwritten rules of baseball is not to rub your opponent's nose in the dirt. If you have a seven or eight run lead after about the sixth inning, it is bad form to steal (or to bunt or hit-and-run). You shouldn't be manufacturing runs if you don't need runs. Although there are some managers who do not subscribe to that theory (the beloved Bobby Valentine?), most managers figure that the shoe will be on the other foot some day, and (to use another cliche) what goes around comes around. Bean balls have been thrown for lesser reasons. Second, remember that if the runner successfully steals second, that frees up the first baseman to play off the bag. He no longer has to keep the runner on for the simple reason that there is no longer a runner there. If the batter is a left handed pull hitter, his manager might prefer to keep the base runner on first, thereby creating a bigger hole between the second baseman and the first baseman who is holding the runner. Third, the manager has to appreciate the option which his counterpart (the opposing manager) has of intentionally walking the batter if first base is open. If a hitter like Joe Mauer (who is batting .375 as this is written) is up with a man on first base, his manager has to figure that the opposing manager will walk Mauer if the runner steals second. The smarter choice for the Twins might be to opt not to steal. Finally, if there are two outs you have to consider that the man who is currently at bat will be the lead off hitter the next inning if the base stealer gets thrown out. If the guy who is up is one of your better hitters, go ahead. But if it's your # 9 batter, do you really want to take a chance of having to lead off the next inning with him at bat?

The debate over which type of baseball is better, the big inning style of the American League, or manufacturing runs a la the National League, is ongoing. Big inning fans claim there is nothing more boring than seeing a pitcher making a fool of himself in the batter's box. National League fans are the purists and the traditionalists who want to keep the pitcher in the lineup, the way ball was originally meant to be played. Plus, there is a lot more strategy involved with small ball than merely hoping a slugger can knock one over the fence with runners on base. If you watch enough baseball you will see both strategies used over the course of a week by almost every team, regardless of its league. It is when interleague games are played that the visiting team is forced to play by the other guys' rules. Of the four major league sports, baseball is the only one which forces one opponent to adapt to a rules change when it hits the road for an interleague game, sometimes resulting in changing strategy on the fly. That is why baseball managers get paid the big bucks.