The Fours & Field Contest

Three weeks from today is not only St. Patrick's Day, but Selection Sunday as well. This means bracketology, office pools, hating Duke, wishing the Gophers weren't in the NIT, Cinderella teams, fans forgetting to call the two play-in games on March 19 and 20 "first round," Charles Barkley not knowing much about the college game but still managing to make the best observations of any of the studio talking heads (other than Jay Bilas), Gus Johnson screaming into the play-by-play mic, Digger Phelps using a felt tip marker which is color-coordinated with his tie, Dick Vitale waving his hands from side to side while he uses the word "unbelievable" in every other sentence, Clark Kellogg informing us that the losing team "doesn't need a three" even though they are trailing by five with under twenty seconds to go, spectacular slam dunks, miracle finishes, and of course, One Shining Moment. The three week NCAA men's basketball tournament is possibly my favorite time of the year, right up there with the World Series (which, incidentally, lasted only four games last year).

One reason why the Big Dance takes over the country for that three week period is that even people who have not watched a college basketball game all season can get involved. Most of the major sports websites, such as cbssports.com and si.com, host their own "fill in the brackets" on-line contests in which fans can participate for free. The prevailing wisdom is that US worker productivity takes a nosedive right before and during the tournament while people fill out their brackets and discuss their predictions over the proverbial water cooler. Almost all of the contests out there involve filling out a complete set of tournament brackets for all sixty-seven games. While this is fun in its own way, let's face it. We probably can't name even one player on most of the tournament teams, so there is quite a bit of luck involved.

Although I am not a big gambler, I feel that the tournament is a little more interesting for those who have some money at stake. Accordingly, I am proposing a contest, which I have dubbed the Fours & Field Contest. For purposes of this post, I'm calling it "The FFC." All you need are seventeen warm bodies who each have ten bucks to throw away. Of course, these are make believe bucks I'm writing about, since gambling is a no-no under the law.

The FFC is all luck; your fortunes depend solely on the luck of the draw. There is, however, a lot less work involved than trying to predict the winners of sixty-seven games (which, as I pointed out, also involves a huge portion of luck). Here is how it works.

The NCAA tournament is comprised of sixty-eight teams which are announced on Selection Sunday. Two "first round" -- actually play-in, regardless of what the NCAA says -- games are held on Tuesday and Wednesday, March 19 and 20, resulting in sixty-four remaining teams. Those teams are assigned to one of four regions, East, West, Midwest and South. Each region has its own two-week tournament, with each team therein seeded from 1 through 16. The winner of each region goes to Atlanta's Georgia Dome for the Final Four on April 6 and 8.

Some time between now and March 20, the Organizer of the FFC collects the imaginary $10 from each of the seventeen participants. Seventeen cards are put into a hat. One card is labeled "FIELD." The other sixteen cards have a seeding number from 1 through 4, plus the name of one of the four regions. For example, one card will be labeled "2 EAST." Another card will be labeled "4 SOUTH," etc. Once all the money has been collected and all seventeen cards are in the hat, those participants present for the drawing blindly pull a card out of the hat. For any participant not present, the Organizer selects someone to draw for that absent participant. When all the cards are drawn, there will be seventeen participants, each with her own card.

Let's say that the number 3 seed in the Midwest Region (as announced on Selection Sunday) is the Cincinnati Bearcats. Whichever participant has the "3 MIDWEST" card will have the Bearcats as her team throughout the tournament. If the number 1 seed in the West Region is the Gonzaga Bulldogs, then whichever participant has the "1 WEST" card will have the Bulldogs as her team throughout the tournament.

What about the participant who draws the card labeled "FIELD"? That lucky person will have all fifty-two teams which are not seeded in the top four of their respective regions.

Obviously, the Organizer needs to establish what the payoff structure will be before the money is collected and the cards are drawn from the hat. Since I am planning to organize my own FFC (if I can come up with seventeen people), my initial plan for how to distribute the imaginary $170 is as follows:

$5 to each participant whose team makes it to one of the four Region Finals (aka, the "Elite 8"), for a total payout of $40; plus

$10 more to each participant whose team wins one of the four Region Finals (aka, the "Final 4"), for an additional payout of $40 (cumulatively, $80); plus

$20 more to each participant whose team wins one of the two National Semifinal games in Atlanta on April 6, for an additional payout of $40 (cumulatively, $120); plus

$50 more to the participant whose team wins the National Championship game in Atlanta on April 8 (cumulatively, $170).

If the FFC participant who draws FIELD is lucky enough to have more than one team seeded 5 or below make it to the Elite 8 (or beyond), that person will be entitled to cash in for each such team. For example, if two of the teams which make it to the Elite 8 are seeded, say, # 7 and # 12, the participant who holds the FIELD card would win $10 (not just $5) at that stage.

Here are some historical tidbits about the Final Four for the last thirteen seasons (i.e., 2000-2012):

* Of the 52 teams which have reached the Final Four, 19 (37%) were # 1 seeds, 12 (23%) were # 2 seeds, 7 (13%) were # 3 seeds, 4 (8%) were # 4 seeds, and 10 (19%) were seeded # 5 or lower (i.e., from "the field").

* A # 1 seed has won the National Championship 9 out of the 13 seasons (69% of the time). A # 2 seed has won once (8% of the time), and a # 3 seed has won 3 times (23% of the time). No team seeded lower than # 3 has won the National Championship during the thirteen season span.

* The Final Four has had at least one # 1 seed 11 out of the 13 years (85% of the time). Only once, in 2008, have all four # 1 seeds made it to the Final Four.

Four quick final thoughts. First, Selection Sunday will be much more enjoyable and dramatic if the card drawing is done before the CBS telecast of the announcement of the tournament brackets. (ESPN also has a Selection Sunday show.) The show usually comes on the air at 5:30 CST. If you are going to participate in a FFC, consider having the drawing ceremony thirty minutes before the telecast. Second, I recommend having a "no trading" rule. You have to live with the team you draw. Third, if at all possible, don't allow anybody to play more than "one hand." The FFC works best with seventeen people, not fifteen with two participants paying double and drawing two cards.  And fourth, I am not advocating the FFC as a replacement for the standard "fill in the brackets" contest.  The latter is as American as apple pie (to coin a phrase).  I am suggesting the FFC as an additional source of merriment and entertainment.

Enjoy the tournament, remember that we're talking about imaginary dollars, and by the way, Go Irish!