Mountain State Is Key To Uphill Climb

The national media tells us there are nine battleground states for tomorrow's presidential election.  They are New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida along the east coast; Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa in the Midwest; and Colorado and Nevada in the mountains.  According to the New York Times, North Carolina and Nevada are not all that close, with The Tar Heel State leaning toward Governor Romney, and The Silver State picking President Obama.  The other forty-one states and the District of Columbia apparently are already spoken for.  I wonder if that is how the campaign directors view it.  Why did the Democrats send Bill Clinton to St. Cloud two days before the election?  Why did the Twin Cities get a visit from Paul Ryan?  Could it be that The Gopher State is still in play?  I am also hearing from my crack research team of three (me, myself and I) that Pennsylvania, which has not voted Republican since 1988, is not a gimme for the Prez.

One of the interesting things about the lay of the land is that five of those so-called battleground states, plus Pennsylvania, are in the Eastern Time Zone.  Their polling places will close mid-evening Minnesota Time, meaning that we might have a pretty good idea before the Ten O'Clock Snooze (as WCCO news legend Dave Moore used to say) whether there will be a changing of the guard in the White House.  One election historical nugget we have heard over and over is that no Republican has ever been elected President without taking Ohio.  In fact, assuming the forty-one "non-battleground" states (including Minnesota and Pennsylvania) go as predicted, if President Obama wins both Florida and Ohio that will put him over the requisite 270 Electoral Votes.

Can Romney win without Ohio?  For the sake of discussion, let's say Obama wins in Ohio but Romney triumphs in Florida.  With the seven remaining battleground states still up for grabs, there are 128 possible combinations, and Obama wins under a whopping 116 of them.  Is it unreasonable to think that North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire, all of which voted blue in 2008, might turn red this time?  Since the Reagan Landslide in 1984 there have been six presidential elections.  North Carolina and Virginia voted Republican in every one of them except the last one (2008).  New Hampshire has only gone red two out of those six elections (1988 and 2000), but the Republicans are crossing their fingers that the voters in the Granite State will support the candidate who has a residence there, viz., Mitt Romney.

If (again, for the sake of discussion) we give North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire to Romney, where does that leave us?  First, to be fair, let's give Nevada to the Democrats, as the Times is predicting.  (After all, any populace which would re-elect Harry Reid to the Senate in 2010 for a third term is probably not going to abandon his ship.)  Now we are down to three battleground states (Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado), with 8 corresponding possibilities.  Here they are:

1. WI-R; IA-R; CO-R. Romney wins.
2. WI-R; IA-R; CO-D. Obama wins.
3. WI-R; IA-D; CO-R. Romney wins.
4. WI-R; IA-D; CO-D. Obama wins.
5. WI-D; IA-R; CO-R. Obama wins.
6. WI-D; IA-R; CO-D. Obama wins.
7. WI-D; IA-D; CO-R. Obama wins.
8. WI-D; IA-D; CO-D. Obama wins.

If you are supporting the President, you have to feel pretty good about your chances.  He wins under six of the eight scenarios.

Romney needs Wisconsin (see # 5 above), the state that voted to keep their current Republican governor, Scott Walker, in office after a hotly contested recall effort.  Although Paul Ryan is their native son, Wisconsin has voted Democrat in all of the six presidential elections since the Reagan Landslide.  Romney also needs Colorado (see # 2 above), a state that has proven to be unpredictable and independent-minded in recent years.  In 2008, Wisconsin and Colorado gave Obama 56% and 54% of their votes, respectively.  Most of the campaign pre-election talk has been about Ohio and Florida, but Wisconsin and Colorado will be the center of attention if the early results from the Eastern Time Zone hot spots are not dispositive of the issue.

You may be well advised to keep your favorite pizza delivery business on speed dial. It could be a two dinner night. Let's hope there are no hanging chads.